Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Whether it is a technical bounce or on the weather energies were well bid today. As of this post Crude is up 2.50% and has broken out of the descending triangle that has existed since the beginning of May. As long as August remains above $78 we will start working long futures in Crude next week and should have some more bullish option suggestions. Resistance is seen at $80.40 followed by $82.80. $4.70 appears to be the line in the sand in natural gas so we should have some bullish suggestions next week…stay tuned. Clients were advised to cover their shorts in the S&P today; locking in a profit ahead of the G-20 meeting. We will be looking to re-establish shorts on a dead cat bounce closer to 1100 in the S&P…stay tuned. Finally sugar made a new high; gaining just over 1% today lifting prices to a two month high. Though December cotton has yet to break we still like scaling into bearish plays expecting the market to lose ground in the coming weeks. Treasuries inverse relationship to equities should continue; on a rally in stocks we would look to exit clients bond puts. A trade near 124′00 in September would fetch a small profit. December live cattle closed above 93 cents for the first time in three weeks. Continue to scale into bullish plays. With the dollar coming off and the safe haven play clearly in play clients reluctantly worked back into the metals. We opted to structure a play in silver to take advantage of the upside but not get hurt too bad on a bearish over reaction to the G-20. Some clients sold December $20 calls and bought (4) $25 calls for $600 plus fees. While we did not move in gold for clients if the trend line continues to support we could see a new record high next week. That level is $1240 on the August contract.USDA quarterly grain report next week. December corn was lower all five sessions this week; losing 5.8% on the week. We continue to advise clients to use this weakness to buy September calls and December futures. Clients just missed the order on their CBOT/KCBOT wheat spread and this trade is working. They may need to change their limit next week…stay tuned. The US dollar looks lower and other crosses higher for now; clients have NO exposure but we should have some trading ideas next week; check out our commentary Monday.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
(954) 929-9993 fax
matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com
Please do not place any trade orders via email as they will not be executed.
Trading in commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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