I have put together a short video showing you how I see the market and what I think is likely to happen this week for gold, stocks and financials. But here are my Cole’s Notes version incase you cannot view the video.

Gold:
- Long term trend is up and I am currently long gold but feel a sharp correction could happen any day.
- Price/Volume action on gold is bearish short term
- We took some money off the table on Friday into the strength
- I am protecting my long position using a stop around the $1240 area
- I still like gold and hope it rallies, but if it turns around I will be in cash until the correction is over.

SP500:
- SP500 is currently oversold after its 4 day sell off
- This index is trading deep into a support level
- Financial sector and GS (Goldman Sachs) tend to lead the market and they performed well on Friday.
- I feel the SP500 index is due for a solid 2-3% bounce and possibly a 4-6% rally

Watch My Video For More Detailed Analysis and Price Levels

Can see the video above? click here – http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/sunday-june-27th-gold-spx-video/

If you would like to get my detailed trading analysis and trading signals please visit my website: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

It’s been a crazy week for gold, oil and the SP500 again…. Since the market top in April we have seen large moves almost EVERY day in the market. I would say this is one of the toughest times for traders as you must be very quick to enter and exit if you want to lock in any profits. Good news is that things should start to smooth out in the next week or so if stock kick into rally mode.

Below is a quick video I did for you showing how I see the market, what I think is about to do and what to be aware of. I recommend you Gold Bugs skip over this report because on Sunday I wrote about how gold kept making new highs this year and how prices were about to drop again. And it was only a few minutes after I sent that report out before the emails started to flood my inbox from individuals around the world telling me how wrong I was saying gold is about to sell off. I knew gold was a crowded trade but not to the point that people are willing to fight you just because you mention its looking ready for a correction…. Which is actually a good thing for gold to do right now….

To be honest I’m still in aw about how mean and rude some people can be when all I am trying to do is help educate and help everyone see the market from a technical point of view without any bias… Thank goodness I’m a positive thinker and find most things funny or can put a positive spin on things like seeing gold drop $35 so far this week 

Anyway… here is my video recap of this weeks price action.

Video Recap for those who don’t want to watch the full 8 minutes:

- Gold still looks bullish, but on the edge of a Very Sharp Correction
- Oil looks about ready to make a run higher
- US Dollar looks to be forming a Head & Shoulders Reversal pattern
- SP500 is at a critical point Rally or Crash
- If the US Dollar drops it should trigger higher gold, oil and stocks
- We are entering earning season and stocks tend to rally into the news

Click To View Video:

http://www.futurestradingsignals.com/trading-education/gold-oil-us-dollar-sp500-technical-trading-video/

Chris Vermeulen
www.FuturesTradingSignals.com
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

It’s been an interesting week with Spain being downgraded as Europe debt crisis widens. This has investors looking at the US dollar in a new light thinking that maybe it’s not that bad of an investment after all. This sent the US Dollar higher along with the price of gold so far this week.

The past 7 days we have seen both the US Dollar and Gold rise together which is not something that happens often. With financial crisis’s popping up around the world I think the US dollar and gold will continue to strengthen (with corrections along the way). I think it will take another 12-24 months before another wave if issues arise in the financial markets and until then we just continue to focus mainly on buying the dips and corrections with the occasional short play in the larger corrections.

USD, Gold And SP500 – Daily Performance Chart

SP500 – Daily Chart

On April 14^th we saw an extreme level of selling which sent the broad market sharply lower. This sell off was followed by value buyers pushing the prices back up to new 2010 highs.

Well this week we have seen the same extreme selling volume and the question we all want to know is will there be buyers this time around?

Trading Conclusion:

Gold is in a bull market but it was setup for another round of selling but this Spain issue has been a pain. If we had another downward word move on gold to the $1115 – 1120 area it would have washed out the majority of gold bulls resetting it’s self up for a big rally.

The Europe debt crisis has thrown a twist into the picture helping boost the price of gold. Gold could still head lower washing out the weak positions but the picture is fuzzy. Silver did not react much to this news as it’s not really seen as the safe haven gold or the US Dollar are.

As for the stock market, it looks and feels like we are about to start a correction. But this week we saw fear in the market again with the VIX and selling volume surging higher to levels which have triggered temporary bottoms in the past. The problem I see here is that some key price levels have been taken out, so the odds are pointing to lower prices in the near future. But Tuesdays panic selling has pushed the market into an oversold condition so we should see a drift upwards for 1-4 days before sellers get active again as they want to sell and short the market at premium prices.

In short, precious metals are not giving any clear price action to take advantage of yet, and the SP500 looks like it’s on its last legs before heading lower for a meaningful correction which should provide a short setup and then a nice long setup once it bottoms out.

If you would like to receive my ETF Trading Signals check out my website: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen

Chasing prices higher especially after a run this large is not the right move in my opinion. I did mention last week that we could see stocks continue to grind higher going into earning season which is about 2 weeks away still. I think that could happen, and if the same thing happens which we saw last January with great earnings (which I think we will see again) then watch out for another drop.

In short, if earning are good which they have been and everyone is expecting the same this April, then the typical Buy on Rumor (pre-earnings rally) which is what we have now, and Sell on the Good News in April then all the suckers thinking the market should rally will provide some liquidity for the smart money to sell at a premium.

That being said, if the earning are not good, then people will sell on that news also because the market is just waiting for news to sell… It’s the exact same situation as last time, that’s how I am feeling about it.

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Trading Bottoms in the Broad Market

The past few months I have been really focusing on buying dips in the broad market after I see a mini 3 wave correction. I use a mix between price patterns, volume, market sentiment, and market internals and of course years of watching how the market moves and evolves during times of economic expansion and contractions. This is represented on the chart below as the purple line.

This chart below shows one of my custom indicators which have successfully timed intermediate market bottoms 1-2 days before everything started to rally higher. This is one of the reasons we bought into the selling on Feb 5th and again on Feb 25th using ETF’s.

Because this is a new etf trading strategy and type of trading signal to be used in a bull market I still have to fin tune it a little more because I want to be sure we don’t get shaken out of positions to early which is what happened to a couple ETF’s we got into Feb 5th.

What happened was were buying when EVERYONE was bearish and panicking out of positions making it an extremely emotional time for traders and myself to buy into the market. This is not an easy task… I still have trouble pulling the trigger on these days and some times I just sit back in my chair and with one quick poke from my finger I hit the enter button to buy. My heart pounding just from that… but add few thousand followers on the pile relying on quality analysis and you start to understand what im going though. Not to mention the hundreds of emails with people telling me the market is about to crash, we should be shorting etc…
Crazy times for sure

Anyways, I will be provided these new signals for subscribers which is very exciting. Because my focus is on managing risk and keeping it as low as possible this will be a learning curve as I apply it to the service and set protective stops which is very difficult to do during a time of high volatility in the market. We can see the market move 2-4% in one day during these times so if we are trading the TNA 3x leveraged Russell2000 fund we could see our position drop 12% in one day. Bigger risk, bigger rewards as they say.

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GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart

Gold and silver are currently trading in limbo at the moment. It’s tough to say what’s going to happen here which is why I continue to wait for something with a high probability of winning before putting any money to work.

The daily chart clearly shows a multi month bull flag, ABC retrace, Reverse Head & Shoulders, and wedge. All of which are very bullish. It’s just a waiting game as I do not jump the gun on any move because the market has the tendency to catch everyone off guard and I don’t want to be one of them. Been there, done that to many times….

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Mid-Week ETF Trading Signals Conclusion:

Keeping things short and simple, I think the stock market is in a major bull market. I am not buying anything until we get a pullback of some type. If the market unfolds properly we could have a great shorting opportunity (profit from a falling market) happening any day now, so that is my main focus at this time.

If you would like to Receive My ETF Trading Signals please join my newsletter at: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/specialoffer/signup.html

Chris Vermeulen

Last Wednesday’s report I showed how the current price of the index was almost identical to the January peak from where prices dropped nearly 10%. The report was called “28 Day Sector Rotation, Commodity & Index”. We did get the first sign of toppy market last Friday with the sharp one day sell off as I expected.

Today, one week later we are now that much closer to a 3-8% drop which is shown in the charts below. It’s important to remember that bottoms tend to happen quickly while a market topping is more of a process which is why so many people take big losses trying tip a top.

The market will continue to move up even when it is way overbought. It’s only when extreme levels are reached that tops can try to be played.

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The Volatility Index – Measures Fear & Complacency in the Market

While the VIX is not something I follow on a daily basis it is important to keep an eye on it. When extreme low levels are reached we know the market (John Dow traders) are feeling confident and buying up everything they can get their hands on.

I like to trade with the trend but when extreme levels are reached I start looking for a low risk setup to the short side (profit in a falling market) using leveraged ETFs.

As you can see from the chart of the VIX and SP500 below, each time the VIX tested the support level the market made a top. Again the VIX is not a great timing tool but it helps me decide which trading strategy I should focus on (swing or day trading) and if I should be looking to buy or selling the market.

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NYSE New Highs-Lows Index

If a chart is worth a thousand words then this chart is worth 2000. It cannot get any simpler that the NYSE new high-low index.

The green line is the SP500 index which is straight forward. The Red line is the number of stocks on the NYSE which have reached a new high.

How strong is the market if is keeps going up while the underlying stocks are getting weaker? Something has got to give and it will most likely be to the down side.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Trend Chart

This chart adds another layer of clarity. You can see what happened last January when everyone was buying stocks thinking life is good, trading is easy. As my trading buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says “Buy when the Cry, Sell when they Yell”and that’s what I am looking to do.

Today the Russell 2000 index (small cap stocks) sold down very hard. These stocks tend to lead the market both up and down. So the red flag is up and I am just waiting for the market to show me its hand so we can catch the next big move.

Coles Notes on Chart:
• Market is over bought and in dire need of a pullback
• The length of this steady rally is much longer than a normal rally
• The rate as which prices are rising is much to steep to be maintained
• The market is trading at the parallel trend line
• VIX is tell us people are buying and not worrying about any possible drop
• NYSE divergence is screaming Overbought…

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GLD Gold Fund Trading

Gold is still in a major bull market but the recent price action from Dec up until now has been down as gold consolidates the large rally from 2009.

Looking at the chart below you can see the mini Head & Shoulders pattern. The neckline has now been broken and prices are falling. I almost had a buy signal for gold two days ago with the small move up and the candle closing above the previous days high. But because the price was still under the neckline (resistance) I decided to stand aside and live another day.

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Mid-Week Gold Newsletter Conclusion:

In short, the market looks very strong but from a technical point of view it’s about to die of exhaustion in my opinion.

Gold, silver and oil I figure will move together which is sideways or down.

I am keeping a very close eye on things hoping prices unfold in a manor which will allow us to spot a low risk setup in the coming days as I would like to catch this drop if it happen. With any luck we could make 10-15% within a couple days using a leveraged ETF.

If you would like to get my Real-Time ETF Trading Signals please check out my website: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

One of the major arguments from gold bulls over the last ten years has been that bullion prices will rise as gold becomes recognized amongst a wider range of investors as a legitimate option for protecting wealth.

This “mainstreaming” has been sped lately by a number of investment instruments allowing buyers to own physical gold without the hassle of storing the metal. Most notably, exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

ETFs have become an important force in the gold market. And now it appears they may be doing same for platinum.

2010 saw the launch of the first ETFs holding physical platinum, in both the U.S. and Japan. Giving investors an easy way to own “the other precious metal”.

And investors have lately been giving these funds a lot of love. While investment flows into gold and silver ETFs have turned negative over the last few weeks, money continues to flow into platinum funds.

The result being that open interest in platinum on global exchanges is running at record highs. On Monday, open interest in NYMEX platinum jumped nearly 5% to over 38,500 contracts. Open interest has been rising steadily since the beginning of March.

Adding up ETF holdings of platinum (running near 935,000 ounces), plus open interest on the NYMEX and TOCOM exchanges, platinum long positions are at an all-time record.

This buying has been good for platinum prices. The metal has risen 7% since late February, from US$1,500 per ounce to over $1,600.

But this is a situation that needs careful monitoring. ETFs and other mainstream investments can be a double-edged sword. It’s great when investors are piling in and driving up prices. But the price can go the other way equally quickly if the winds of sentiment change and holders start selling.

One thing is certain. More ETF investing will mean more volatility. This is already showing up in the palladium market, which also saw new ETFs introduced recently.

Palladium open interest on the NYMEX spiked in late February. Then plunged 10% in early March. But over the last two weeks, buying has once again surged.

Getting these metals in front of a wider audience has potential to create a lot of buying. Just beware of the trade going the other way.

Here’s to the wide world of metals,

Dave Forest
dforest@piercepoints.com

Copyright 2009 Resource Publishers Inc.

Note:

The information provided in this newsletter is based on the independent research of Dave Forest and Notela Resource Advisors Ltd. and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade any securities or commodities named herein. Information contained in this newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way assured. All materials and related graphics provided in this newsletter and any other materials which are referenced herein are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. No assurance of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for verifying the accuracy thereof and for their own actions and investment decisions. Neither Dave Forest nor Notela Resource Advisors Ltd., make any representations about the suitability of the information delivered in this newsletter or any other materials that are referenced herein for any purpose whatsoever. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and neither Dave Forest nor Notela Resource Advisors Ltd. are registered with any securities regulatory authority to provide investment advice. Readers are cautioned to consult with a qualified registered securities adviser prior to making any investment decisions. The information contained in this newsletter has not been reviewed or authorized by any of the companies mentioned herein.

The hardest work

Is to stand up perfectly straight,

As the universe falls down around you.

I get my fair share of emails from individuals who think trading gold is a complete scam because of manipulation and crazy price action and I completely agree with this group of people. But the entire market is manipulated… so we all just have to deal with it or stop trading and I am not going to do that.

My focus is on price action and volume allowing me to think with a level head and manage my money one candle stick bar at a time.

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Spot Gold Futures Day Trade Video

So here is a short video covering a recent day trade for spot gold futures. Notice in the video I use the gold futures chart for analyzing the market and how I traded with CFD’s during the late night.

The reason I traded CFD’s is simply because you can trade any size position with CFD’s big or small and I like small positions during overnight trades when I am sleeping. Also you get crazy 100-200x leverage trading CFD’s. So I can risk a very small amount of money but have big potential if a trade goes in my favor so for this small move in gold I was able to capture the gains with little risk.

It is important to note that when I have a buy or sell signal in gold, silver, oil, the indexes etc… any related investment can be traded. For example if I have a buy signal for gold the you can trade gold futures, gold CFD’s, gold ETF’s etc…. they all move together at the same time. You pick which investment you are comfortable wil.

Anyways, day trading spot gold is my sweet spot (Pardon the pun) in the market and with my new trader service launching April 6th were I provide every trade I do whether its an ETF, Futures or CFD play members will be able to trade directly beside me in the chatroom which has a live audio squawk box. The service will be very educational as you not only see what and when im trading but can ask me questions and read my weekly educational trading reports explaining closed out trades.

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Link to article if you cannot view it: Click Here

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Gold Trading Conclusion:

I hope this short video helps you understand that taking every trade the market seems to be giving you does not always need to be taken. The average trader thinks that I am extremely aggressive as I day trade, swing trade and do so some long term dividend plays etc… but really I would consider myself VERY CONSERVATIVE.

I pass on about 70% of the setups I see and wait for something that has ALL the stars aligned before putting my money to work. The market is designed to chew up and spit out gamblers before they even know what hit them. And this is why I site back and watch the blood bath on a daily basis only sticking my hand in when it looks clear.

You will not see me bet the house on any given trade. All I am looking for is a low risk setup. If there is an edge I will take the opportunity to make money whether it’s a quick $50 or a $1500 a day trade setup.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly ETF Trading Report to your inbox please visit my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Last Wednesday I sent out a report covering sector rotation comparing the price performance of these sectors from the January peak with last weeks price action. It was very interesting and it pointed to a sharp sell off Thursday or Friday

Here is last Wednesday’s report if you are interested: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/28-day-sector-rotation-commodity-index-update/

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GLD Gold ETF Daily & 60 Minute Chart

Last week gold gap higher then traded sideways for a few days. I will admit it was very tempting to buy into the move but I stuck with my trading strategy which is to not chase moves which gap in my direction.

Gaps are known to get filled about 70% of the time. What that means in this situation is that the price will most likely sell back down to fill that gap before trying to move higher.

All that said the problem I see now on the daily chart is the possibility of the mini Head & Shoulders pattern breaking down. If gold moves any lower then I would expect a sharp pullback. The measured move would equal a pullback to the $104 area on the GLD chart and the $1070 level for spot gold.

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SLV Silver ETF Trading Chart

The silver chart looks much different than gold’s but in reality they are trading in a similar situation. If silver moves any lower then sellers will flood the market and take the price down to the next support level. But if we get a bounce then it should surge and rally almost a $1 per ounce from this point.

Only time will tell as we let this trade unfold with a stop at $16.52.

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Natural Gas – Weekly Trading Chart

Natural gas has been selling down for almost 2 months. The chart is starting to show a possible buy point if all goes well in the next few weeks.

What I like about this chart is that we saw a break of a support level and heavy selling which tells me the general herd is getting shaken of their long positions. This extended sell off is now entering a support zone and could provide us with a low risk setup in the next 2-3 weeks.

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Crude Oil – Weekly Trading Chart

Oil is trading similar to gold and silver. It is trading at a key pivot point and could go either way quickly. I will be keeping my eye on the daily and 60 minute charts for a possible low risk entry point.

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Weekend Stock & Commodity Trading Conclusion:

In short, the overall market is trading at level were there is not much to we can do. Day traders are able to take advantage of this price action but not swing traders.

I feel the major indexes have another 1-2 down day left in them before a bounce, but it’s more difficult to gauge the momentum with a cool down period in the middle of it all (the weekend).

The market is on the edge of some exciting moves as I can feel something brewing. With any luck there could be some great opportunities in the coming days.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports checkout my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Last Wednesday I sent out a report covering sector rotation comparing the price performance of these sectors from the January peak with last weeks price action. It was very interesting and it pointed to a sharp sell off Thursday or Friday

Here is last Wednesday’s report if you are interested: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/28-day-sector-rotation-commodity-index-update/

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GLD Gold ETF Daily & 60 Minute Chart

Last week gold gap higher then traded sideways for a few days. I will admit it was very tempting to buy into the move but I stuck with my trading strategy which is to not chase moves which gap in my direction.

Gaps are known to get filled about 70% of the time. What that means in this situation is that the price will most likely sell back down to fill that gap before trying to move higher.

All that said the problem I see now on the daily chart is the possibility of the mini Head & Shoulders pattern breaking down. If gold moves any lower then I would expect a sharp pullback. The measured move would equal a pullback to the $104 area on the GLD chart and the $1070 level for spot gold.

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SLV Silver ETF Trading Chart

The silver chart looks much different than gold’s but in reality they are trading in a similar situation. If silver moves any lower then sellers will flood the market and take the price down to the next support level. But if we get a bounce then it should surge and rally almost a $1 per ounce from this point.

Only time will tell as we let this trade unfold with a stop at $16.52.

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Natural Gas – Weekly Trading Chart

Natural gas has been selling down for almost 2 months. The chart is starting to show a possible buy point if all goes well in the next few weeks.

What I like about this chart is that we saw a break of a support level and heavy selling which tells me the general herd is getting shaken of their long positions. This extended sell off is now entering a support zone and could provide us with a low risk setup in the next 2-3 weeks.

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Crude Oil – Weekly Trading Chart

Oil is trading similar to gold and silver. It is trading at a key pivot point and could go either way quickly. I will be keeping my eye on the daily and 60 minute charts for a possible low risk entry point.

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Weekend Stock & Commodity Trading Conclusion:

In short, the overall market is trading at level were there is not much to we can do. Day traders are able to take advantage of this price action but not swing traders.

I feel the major indexes have another 1-2 down day left in them before a bounce, but it’s more difficult to gauge the momentum with a cool down period in the middle of it all (the weekend).

The market is on the edge of some exciting moves as I can feel something brewing. With any luck there could be some great opportunities in the coming days.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports checkout my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen